Background
Nagorno-Karabakh region lies in between Amenia o one side and Azerbaijan on the other. The dispute began following the breakdown of the Soviet Union in the late 1980s and lasted till approximately 1994, with both Armenia and Azerbaijan claiming this strategic territory. At that time, the enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh had held a referendum boycotted by Azerbaijan where the people chose independence over joining either of the two countries.
The conflict between ethnic Armenians (mostly Christians) and ethnic Azerbaijanis (mostly Muslims) in Nagorno-Karabakh reached a particular low with Armenia and Azerbaijan accusing each other of having instigated ethnic cleansing. The situation worsened when the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast, an administrative unit, decided to vote to join Armenia given its large Armenian population. By 1992, the violence had increased and thousands of civilians had been displaced, compelling international bodies to take notice.
In May 1994, Russia mediated a ceasefire between Armenia and Azerbaijan, but the conflict has continued for three decades, with instances of ceasefire violations and violence instigated from both sides.
What has the situation been like since the Ceasefire?
The border between Armenia and Azerbaijan has been tense since 2018, particularly after Azerbaijan moved troops into the area, close to its border with Georgia. In a break from the violence that the disputed region has witnessed for over 30 years, this area has been relatively calm for the past two years.
In April 2016, the region was particularly tense because of violent fighting between the two countries in what came to be known as the Four-Day War. Since then, while there have been sporadic instances of flare-ups in the region, it came nowhere close to the situation in 2016.
Occurrences of September 2020 and Regional Influences
Both sides have reports unprovoked firing by the other side, resulting into death of a few soldiers and injuries sustained by many soldiers. Even though situation remains tense, an all-out war between Armenia and Azerbaijan is unlikely due to a number of factors. In this disputed region, there are hundreds of civilian settlements, residents of which would be directly impacted and potentially displaced if any large-scale war were to break out between the two countries.
Although Turkey released a statement following the developments this past weekend that it would back Azerbaijan “in its struggle to protect its territorial integrity”, but it is believed that any military escalation would draw regional powers like Turkey and Russia more deeply into the conflict, something that wouldn’t be preferred by either Ankara or Moscow.
There is also the question of the network of oil and gas pipelines and strategic roads to which access might be blocked or interrupted for the region at large should any large-scale fighting ensue. For both Armenia and Azerbaijan, these would create immediate challenges.
